rick@lab:~$ ./why_this_works.sh
I'm Rick, a former bank quant. This is the momentum regime approach I teach, backtested from 1928 to 2020, and you code it yourself. Six minutes, then decide.
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Same charts as the video. Nothing here is a payout screenshot, because those are the easiest thing on the internet to fake.
Bull markets since 1958: 1.8 to 12.3 years, +48% to +582%. Bear markets: 0.1 to 2.5 years, -22% to -57%.
Everyone tells you that you can't beat the market and that compounding is the closest thing to magic in finance. I'm not going to argue with either. I'm telling you to do exactly that, with one edit: only be in when the risk is low. If you were only in for the bull markets, your gains are higher and you never eat the drawdown. Sounds ludicrous, until you can measure when you're in one.
Annualized volatility below the moving average: 22.8% to 26.9%. Above it: 14.5% to 15.6%. Every window from 10 to 200 days.
The momentum effect is just psychology. People herd into a buy, sentiment stays strong, and what has gone up keeps going up. Record that across windows and the trends show up on their own. The part that matters: below the average, with momentum negative, is the high-risk state. It's not a dip to buy. It's the thing you sit out.
In recessions, the S&P 500 sits below its 200-day average 68% of the time. In expansions, it's above it 81% of the time. Window: October 1928 to December 2020.
Below the average is what a recession looks like. Above it is what an expansion looks like. The rest of the same test says the same thing: annualized excess return only shows up in positive momentum, the worst trading days cluster in negative momentum, and the long positive-day streaks live in positive momentum. Nearly a hundred years of data, and it's one of the known contradictions to CAPM: a semi-efficient state that beats the market. That state is what I teach you to trade.
Smooth ride up. Volatility spikes, the market goes indecisive, you're out. Smooth ride up again. Spike, out. On QQQ, late 2021 to now, that's four sell-offs sidestepped, minus 16, minus 23, minus 19 and minus 22, and four trends ridden, plus 42, plus 17, plus 20 and plus 20. You hold winners a long time, because bull markets last longer, and you're flat when it gets ugly.
Lose less, compound more. That's the whole trick. There is no version of it you can buy as a signal. You code it, you test it, and you know exactly why it's in or out on any given day.
The classroom is built in the order a new member needs it. Watch the first one, then go straight into the bootcamp.
What your final product looks like. Twelve minutes, then you know.
The fastest way to get to work with real alpha, with the coding manual inside, and me to help you customize it.
Built for prop firms. Version 2.0.0, still under construction. Watch the introduction first.
Watch after bootcamp. Ask anything, answers with receipts.
Short-lecture series on the flow of price, driven by sentiment.
Difficulty: high. Proceed with caution. It means it.
Pragmatic view on markets, fundamentals and the basics.
Weekly. Algo development, applied. New topic every week.
Plus the roadmap, the mandatory literature (a lot more than the one paper in the video), the trading code, code review, and me in the community answering questions. Not a support desk. Me.
Billing runs through Skool. Cancel from your Skool settings any time; you keep access to the end of the cycle you paid for.
Twelve members, in their own words. Raw screenshots from the lab's Discord and the Skool review wall, drawdowns included. Click any of them to read at full size.
Member results are their own. Not financial advice.
No. The bootcamp includes the coding manual. You learn enough to build the model, test it and change it. If you've never written a line, you start there.
Rick: instruments (equities, indices, crypto, futures?) and the platform or broker the bootcamp is built on.
The 2.0 Bootcamp is built for prop firms. It's still being built out, so watch its introduction first and start with the Trend-Following Bootcamp.
Rick: honest hours per week to get through the bootcamp, and how long until a member has a working model.
No. It's education and code. You make your own decisions and you carry your own risk. Backtests describe the past; they don't promise the future.
Inside Skool: profile picture, Settings, Communities, Settings next to the group, Manage membership, Cancel membership. You keep access to the end of the billing cycle. Cancel at least 24 hours before it renews.
Backtested, not vibes.
Join, and the first thing you'll see is the twelve-minute video. Watch it, then start the bootcamp. I'm in there.
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